CFTC Probes Adam Kinzinger Over $823 in Kalshi Pardon Bets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger over Kalshi trades tied to his own presidential pardon. The trades occurred in December 2024 and January 2025, according to people familiar with the probe. Kinzinger said screenshots show he made $823 from the trades, while most of his roughly 25 wagers lost money.

Kinzinger said he wagered on whether President Joe Biden would pardon him and whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office. Biden ultimately pardoned Kinzinger and other members of the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack. Kinzinger said he was out of Congress, had no inside information, and reviewed Kalshi’s rules before trading.

Kalshi bars users from contracts where they directly participate. The CFTC also prohibits trading based on material nonpublic information. The agency and Kalshi declined to comment, while Kinzinger said neither had contacted him. The investigation comes as regulators increase scrutiny of prediction markets and potential insider trading.